Dr Warren R Hughes

B Com M Com MBA DBA

PROFILE

Dr Hughes was born in Cambridge, NZ and is a graduate of the University of Auckland and Indiana University, USA where he completed his doctorate in Business Economics and Public Policy in 1970.

After graduation, he taught in the areas of econometrics, forecasting, financial and managerial economics at The University of New South Wales in Sydney (1970 - 1978) and most recently at The University of Waikato in Hamilton, NZ (1978 - 2007). At various times, he has taught in MBA programmes at the University of Florida in Gainesville and in the Graduate School of Management at the University of California at Irvine.

Dr Hughes has published extensively, mainly as single-authored articles in international journals such as Decision Sciences, Theory and Decision, The Journal of Business, Mathematical & Computer Modelling, Environment & Planning, Australian Journal of Management, Economic Record, Forest Science, Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, OMEGA, and, most recently in the Chinese Business Review. Other articles on theoretical and applied economics have been published by Dr Hughes in the NZ Economic Papers.

Over his career, Dr Hughes developed a particular expertise in the area of economic impact and regional analysis. He was the Editor/Manager of the Regional Economic Bulletin, which focused on topical issues relevant to the business and wider communities, mainly but not exclusively, in the Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions. The Bulletin, which was a complimentary publication of the University of Waikato, ceased publication in 2008.

Dr Hughes has acted as a consulting economist at various times for Economic Solutions Limited, Environment Waikato, Carter Holt Harvey Limited, Contact Energy, Knotridge Corporation (USA), Norske Skog Tasman Limited, Port of Tauranga Limited, Port of Napier, Feltex Carpets Limited, Man'O War Farm Limited, Refining NZ Limited, Zespri International, Waikato Innovation Park, Property Council of NZ, Creative Napier, Katolyst, Priority One BOP, Vision Manawatu, Enterprise Franklin, Venture Taranaki, various District Councils in the Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Hawkes Bay and other regions and for events such as Tauranga's Montana Jazz Festival, Hamilton's Balloons Over Waikato and Napier's Art Deco Weekend.

In 2007 Dr Hughes retired from university lecturing and in June 2008 he was appointed an Honorary Fellow in Economics at The University of Waikato.

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Detailed Economic Modelling 

Assessing Probabilities of Unique Events: Calibrating Qualitative Likelihood Judgments into a Probability Distribution.


Chinese Business Review, Volume 9 Number 9 (Serial number 87), Sept. 2010, pages 54 - 60.

ABSTRACT: Multifaceted events in an organizational environment usually need to be assigned probabilities as a prerequisite to analytical decision-making. If the decision situation is unique, a lack of relevant historical frequency data may preclude use of traditional probability models such as the normal, binomial etc. In this case, an individual decision maker (DM) or an informed group of persons can input into a procedure as outlined here to determine a probability distribution that leads to expected values of alternative actions or fair values of securities. The individual or group member must decide qualitatively on the extent to which one event is "more likely" than another where both events are ranked adjacent (i.e. closest to each other) in terms of likelihood. Even though the individual or group members may lack experience in orthodox probability assessment, these pairwise "more likely" judgments are not overly demanding for persons familiar with the possible outcomes in the situation under analysis.

Full paper and latest update available below:

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